ASEAN-GCC-China: Potential for Cooperation

Looking For 1+1+1 Greater Than 3

The first ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit was hosted by Saudi Arabia in October 2023. This marked the inaugural summit between the two groups, with the theme “Sustainable Future through Creative Partnership.” In February, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (Chairman of the ASEAN Summit 2025) announced that China would participate in a trilateral ASEAN-GCC-China summit following the second ASEAN-GCC summit scheduled for Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, later this year. The trilateral summit took place on May 27, immediately after the conclusion of the 46th ASEAN Summit (May 26-27).

The ASEAN-GCC-China collaboration includes 17 countries: the 10 ASEAN members, 6 GCC countries from the GCC (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), and China. Together, these nations have a total population of over 2 billion people and a combined GDP of nearly $25 trillion. During the summit, Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered a speech at the official dinner, expressing his expectation that the cooperation among the three regions would benefit all parties and contribute to economic development and peace. He emphasized that “one plus one plus one could be greater than three” by leveraging their collective strengths.

The summit garnered significant media attention, particularly due to global concerns raised by President Trump's tariff policy. Chinese President Xi Jinping had recently visited four ASEAN countries in mid-April, including Malaysia, shortly after President Trump implemented the “Reciprocal Tariff.” Xi’s visit occurred with little notice, leading many to believe its purpose was to forge alliances with ASEAN to mitigate the impact of the new tariffs on exports to the U.S. By sending Premier Li to the ASEAN-GCC-China summit, China indicated its strong desire for strategic alignment with both ASEAN and the GCC in areas such as economics, industry, technology collaboration, and global supply chain partnerships, as these countries are critical to China's overseas trade. Furthermore, China aims to promote “deepening South-South Cooperation” and enhance the Belt and Road Initiative during this event, showcasing its commitment to countries with similar interests.

More Cards To Play

Beyond seeking support from friends in the ongoing tariff confrontation between China and the USA, China has other interests in participating in the summit. Two important agreements within the Asia-Pacific region are the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). 

China remains the dominant exporter within RCEP; however, growth projections for 2024 are only 3.6%, indicating a slowdown in trading growth with other members, despite a rebound from a significant contraction of -8.5% in 2023. In contrast, intra-ASEAN trade surged by 7.03% in 2024, highlighting China's need to capitalize on the market potential of the existing $1 trillion trade from the previous year.

The CPTPP includes 11 members: Australia, Canada, Chile, Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, New Zealand, and Vietnam. While there are seven overlapping members (four from ASEAN) in both agreements, China’s application to join the CPTPP is still under consideration. To gain the support necessary for its CPTPP entry, China needs to strengthen its trade relationships with ASEAN.

In 2024, China-GCC trade exceeded $288 billion, focusing not only on energy products but also aiming to increase its cooperation in industries, new energy, and digital technology in the region. Some media outlets have referred to the summit as a "Golden Triangle," highlighting the benefits derived from GCC wealth, ASEAN’s emerging supply chains and labor force, and China's mature manufacturing and technology development. Optimistically, some analysts believe this could signal China’s proposed solutions to the challenges posed by current US tariffs.

Common Grounds Reinforcing – Demanding Work Down The Road

Leaders attending the summit emphasized the need for "building a new model of cooperation in an increasingly complex global environment." However, each party has its own interests to pursue. The ASEAN members differ significantly in terms of economic strength: some are relatively prosperous and approach middle-income status, while others still struggle to improve their per capita income. This disparity causes hesitation among some ASEAN countries regarding market openness to China, while others actively seek to attract Chinese investment. Additionally, the territorial disputes in the South China Sea between China and some ASEAN members remain an unspoken issue at the summit.

On the other hand, GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) members may wish to foster a closer relationship with China, but they do not want to create the perception that they are pivoting away from the United States. A stable US-GCC relationship is critical for these affluent Gulf countries in both financial and geopolitical terms. As a result, the joint closing statement for the ASEAN-GCC-China summit was perceived as mild and balanced.

While the trilateral summit has the potential to inspire new collaboration in the region, the challenge lies in how to turn these concepts into reality. Significant and strategically allocated efforts will be necessary to move forward.