Vietnam’s 2025 GDP Growth: Fueled by Robust Industry and Exports

In 2025, Vietnam emerged as a “bright spot” regarding global economic growth. According to the National Statistics Office (NSO), Vietnam’s GDP reached approximately VND 12.85 quadrillion (around USD 489.07 billion), representing an 8.02% year-on-year growth. Its per capita GDP exceeded USD 5,000 for the first time, marking the country’s official entry into the upper-middle-income category.

Sector-wise, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 3.78% in 2025, contributing 5.3% to overall growth. Industry and construction expanded by 8.95%, accounting for 43.62% of GDP growth, while the services sector grew by 8.62%, contributing the largest share at 51.08%. This structure underscores Vietnam’s ongoing transition from an agriculture-dependent economy to one led by industry and services.

Exports continued to be the driving force of growth, Revenue from exports of goods and services accounted for approximately 83% of GDP.  The trade-to-GDP ratio (exports plus imports as a percentage of GDP) reached a record total trade volume of over $930 billion (export at $475.04 billion and import at $455.01 billion) in 2025 with a trade surplus of $20 billion. The characteristic of Vietnam's economy being highly dependent on exports makes it vulnerable to changes in the international economic environment.

Vietnam’s FDI in 2025 as a Catalyst for High-Tech Manufacturing Development

In 2025, amid a global decline in FDI, Vietnam remained a stable and sustainable destination for foreign investment thanks to its relatively lower labor costs and a consistent stability environment, with total registered capital, including new and adjusted capital, and investment through capital contributions and share purchases, surpassing 38.4 billion USD, up 0.5% from 2024. Foreign invested-projects have disbursed a total of 27.6 billion USD, up 9% year-on-year, the highest level in the past five years. With the processing and manufacturing sector as the primary beneficiary. It attracted $22.88 billion in realized FDI, accounting for 82.8% of the total. Notably, over 80% of this sectoral investment was channeled into high-tech industries such as semiconductors, electronics, and electrical equipment.

In terms of newly registered foreign capital in 2025, Singapore led with $4.84 billion, accounting for 27.9% of the total. It was followed by China ($3.64 billion, 21%), the Hong Kong SAR ($1.73 billion, 10%), as well as Japan, Sweden, Taiwan, and South Korea. Investment sources remained highly concentrated within Asia, with these key economies playing complementary roles across the industrial value chain.

Vietnam’s 2025 Trade Profile: A Strategic Intermediary

The year 2025 marked another milestone for Vietnam's trade economy, with total import-export turnover exceeding USD 930 billion. it benefits from the tariff advantages under multiple regional trade agreements as well as the supply chain relocation driven by the escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.

As of January 2026, Vietnam has signed 17 free trade agreements (FTAs) with 60 partner economies. Vietnam's FTAs include the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), etc. The bilateral trade between the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement is exceed $80 billion in 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 10.1%. More significantly, the total import and export volume in 2025 between Vietnam and Germany exceeded 13.66 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 16.6%, accounting for approximately 20% of the total trade volume between Vietnam and the European Union. Vietnam's trade within the RCEP bloc surged by 17.4% in 2025.

Export value reached USD 475 billion, representing a robust year-on-year growth of 17%. The foreign-invested sector remained the primary engine of export growth, accounting for USD 367.09 billion, or 77.3% of total exports. Processed industrial goods dominated the export structure, contributing USD 421.47 billion and representing 88.7% of the total. A standout performance was recorded in computers, electronics, and components, whose exports surpassed the USD 100 billion threshold for the first time, exceeding USD 101.9 billion by mid-December. This sector emerged as the key driver of Vietnam's annual export expansion.

Vietnam was once primarily associated with labor-intensive apparel and footwear manufacturing, but now it is labeled as an "electronics manufacturing hub" seems to have become Vietnam's new ID, along as electronic assembly giants such as Samsung, Foxconn, BYD, Luxshare, and Quanta have set up manufacturing facilities in the country. Vietnam is a global smartphone export powerhouse.

The U.S. still remained Vietnam's largest export market in 2025, despite maintaining a 20% tariff on many Vietnamese goods，however, compared to goods from China, the tariffs remain low. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. reached USD 153.2 billion, an increase of 28.2% year-on-year, securing its position as the top destination.

Leading export categories to the U.S. in 2025 included computers, electronic products, and components, which surpassed USD 42 billion—an increase of 81.3% over the prior year—accounting for 27.4% of total exports to the U.S. This was followed by machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts, reaching USD 24.1 billion (up 9.4% and representing 15.7% of exports). Textiles and garments ranked third, totaling USD 17.8 billion with 10.7% growth, accounting for 11.6% of the total.

Several categories also recorded substantial export growth compared to 2024, including toys, sporting goods, and accessories & parts (+260.3%); electrical wires and cables (+52.2%); glass and glass products (+99.9%); and coffee (+56.9%).

On the import side,  valued at USD 455.01 billion, up 19.4% year-on-year. Within this total, imports by foreign-invested enterprises surged by 31.9% to USD 317.63 billion, underscoring their expanding production footprint. China consolidated its position as Vietnam's largest import source, with total procurement reaching USD 186 billion. This dependence was particularly evident in the electronics supply chain; imports of computers, electronics, and components soared to USD 123.15 billion from China in the first ten months alone, a 39.1% increase.

As the U.S. raises tariffs to reduce direct imports from China, it has correspondingly increased imports from Vietnam. However, Vietnam remains heavily dependent on Chinese intermediate goods and components to manufacture many of the products it ultimately exports to the U.S. This trade structure makes the Vietnamese economy vulnerable to direct impacts from fluctuations in Sino-US relations, disruptions in China's supply chain, or rising costs.

According to a Reuters analysis based on World Bank data and expert assessments, the value of China’s exports to Vietnam has closely paralleled that of Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. in recent years—illustrating Vietnam’s critical role as an intermediary within reconfigured global trade flows.

Domestic Consumption & Retail Landscape

Domestic consumption is a key growth driver. According to the "Vietnam Domestic Market Report 2025" released by the Ministry of Industry and Trade's Agency, indicating the retail market size reached approximately $269 billion in 2025, a 9-10% year-on-year increase.

A standout is the e-commerce sector, which surged to $32 billion—accounting for nearly 12% of total retail and service revenue—and is growing at over 20% annually, the second fastest in Southeast Asia. Driven by a young population (70% under 35) and rising incomes, Vietnam is projected to become one of the region’s largest retail markets, with e-commerce expected to reach $50 billion by 2030. This expanding consumer base offers complementary opportunities alongside Vietnam’s export-led growth model.‌

In summary, Vietnam's economic activity in 2025 presents a dynamic and rapidly transforming economy, yet it navigates persistent challenges still including infrastructure, energy shortages, technological barriers to industrial upgrading, and highly dependencies on global economic climate. Although the government’s sequential reforms and policies implement aimed at improving the investment environment are underway—such as the new Land Law, Data Security Law, and Investment Law—while also increasing investments in infrastructure, their full impact will unfold over time. For international businesses, Vietnam represents a critical strategic opportunity—both as a burgeoning consumer market and a pivotal node for resilient, diversified supply chains in Asia. If you require local expertise and strategic insight, please contact Jayson Cronin at jcronin@cca-im.com, we provide the on-the-ground expertise and strategic advisory needed to develop and execute your business strategy effectively in Vietnam and across Asia. Since 2003, we have helped 300+ North American companies and 40+ PE firms in over 500 projects to develop and execute their business strategies in China and Asia in a wide range of industries.  To learn more about us and our services, please visit www.cca-im.com.